Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,548,996$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,422,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 62.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,422,082.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,803$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,452.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(119,452.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,738,029$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,193$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,442.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,442.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,582$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,494.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,494.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,922$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $216,852$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328,129.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 91.2)}}\) (asimptote \(328,129.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,648$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,079.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,079.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,558$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,686$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,386.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(285,386.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $604$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(47.7 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{709.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 81.1)}}\) (asimptote \(709.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,612$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,373$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,259.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 86.2)}}\) (asimptote \(41,259.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $726$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{699.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(699.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,505$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,082$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $479$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 100.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,041.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,728$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,930$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(150 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,895.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 93.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,895.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $727$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{971.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 76.6)}}\) (asimptote \(971.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,051$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,934$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,825.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,825.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $152$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,225$ on 2020-06-28
